In a multi-part series on Substack I am looking at roster resource allocation across the NFL to see which teams are dedicating the most to their on-field product, and which teams are trying to skimp.
The methodology looks at actual cash invested in player salaries instead of salary cap hits because cash represents real ownership investment and cap hits can be manipulated. It also accounts for the value of players on rookie contracts by using a standardized valuation model for draft picks I developed and stacking on the cash paid to those players. You can read more about the draft pick valuation system here.
The Saints have a historical reputation of spending heavily on their veterans and mortgaging the future through large signing bonuses and restructured contracts. But following former quarterback Derek Carr's unexpected retirement last off-season Saints general manager Mickey Loomis has taken a more modest approach to team building. And now New Orleans has a more balanced, and unassuming approach to rebuilding the team.
Saints trail divisional opponents in resource allocation
This season's on-field product is projected to be worth $370 million between veteran spending and the players on rookie deals and the value of their draft slots. That $370 million trails the Bucs by $37 million and the division-leading Panthers by $44 million.
That gap starts and ends with cash spending. While all four NFC South teams live in the bottom third of the league in cash spending according to Over The Cap, Tampa Bay and Carolina sit at the top of that third, while New Orleans and Atlanta are closer to the bottom.
Where New Orleans leads the group in resource allocation
The Saints outspend the rest of the NFC South at three positions. Running back, offensive line and linebacker. Paying over $25 million in cash to Travis Etienne Jr. and Alvin Kamara puts them ahead of the rest of the division before adding in the value of Kendre Miller's draft position and salary. Now that may change if they move on from Kamara, but for now they are putting more into their run game than any other team in the division.
New Orleans' investment in their offensive line puts them just a hair ahead of Tampa Bay and Carolina. Looking across the Saints' line, the investment is substantial. Back-to-back first round picks used in the 2024 and 2025 NFL Drafts on Kelvin Banks Jr. and Taliese Fuaga. A large contract this offseason used on David Edwards to go with a modest salary for Cesar Ruiz, and Erik McCoy round out the interior of their line.
Much like offensive line, the Saints squeak out the top spot in the division with veteran contracts for Pete Werner and Kaden Elliss.
The most important question
The rookie contract valuations come down to the expected value of the pick. But teams get a wide variety of returns on those investments. And New Orleans' bet on quarterback Tyler Shough is the wild card here. One of my biggest takeaways from looking at the division led me to this conclusion.
“It’s not hyperbole to say the Shough pick could be the most consequential roster move in the NFC South for the next decade.”
If Shough turns out to be the franchise quarterback he flashed as at the end of his rookie season, the Saints will get $40-50 million of value out of a $12 million investment. That's a gap equivalent to an NFL star. And it helps Loomis reset the Saints' financials in 2025 and 2026 before investing heavily in Shough's depressed salary and second-round draft status in 2027 and beyond.
Loomis is setting up for a run next year. It's a reasonable bet on a talented quarterback. And one that stands to pay off if Shough makes the leap in year two.
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