The expectation is that Brock Bowers will see his first action of the season, and his impact is more than just the Las Vegas Raiders best receiving threat. The tight end completely changes how the New Orleans Saints have to prepare for this game, and now they have to deal with the wrinkle of never seeing Klint Kubiak use Bowers.
That's a relative unknown, though the Saints can look back on Kubiak's time with the Seattle Seahawks to reasonably predict he'll deploy quite a few two tight end sets. The Seahawks used 12 personnel at the 11th highest rate in the league last year, and they didn't have Bowers level player. The Raiders haven't had Bowers, and that's why the team hasn't used the grouping much this year.
Instead, Kubiak has has opted to lean heavily into two running back formations. The film is littered with it, but the biggest question becomes how does Bowers change Kubiak's philosophy. Predicting that and adjusting to it throughout the game will be a major challenge for Brandon Staley.
Saints may change their defensive approach to deal with Brock Bowers
A lot of attention is paid to Bowers because he's the returning player and the best player on the offense, but Michael Mayer shouldn't be left out of the equation. The Raiders have such a dangerous 12 personell because both are dangerous players in their own right. However, Bowers is the key, and like we mentioned, the lack of tape on him in Kubiak's system provides the new challenge.
The Saints will have to break one of two tendencies against the Raiders to deal with Bowers' return. The Saints play a lot of nickel formation, and the STAR role is one of the most important positions on the defense. However, they've primarily matched 12 personnel with their base defense.
Brock's return and expected high usage of 12 personnel will either force the Saints out of their typical most common defense or change the way they defend two tight end sets.
One thing that could help the defnese is Bowers' tendency to operate split out instead of in line. Technically, it's still two tight ends, but it's not as heavy as having both tight ends in tight to the formation. The Saints wouldn't need to prioritize going as heavy as often if that trend continues for Bowers.
Jonas Sanker is one of the better players to defend Bowers and still be prepared for how the Raiders deploy them. He has the coverage skills to line up against Bowers in the slot and the physicality to be involved in run defense. It would be giving up some weight when Bowers and Mayer are both inline, but that's an adjustment that may have to be made in the flow of the game.
If the Saints do resort to playing base defense, then linebackers and probably Justin Reid will be the bear the brunt of defending Bowers. The Saints will have to move wisely on this because Bowers could break the game open in his return to action.
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