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Saints' schedule proves strength of schedule is a myth

Dec 28, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA;  New Orleans Saints head coach Kellen Moore leaves the field against the Tennessee Titans during the second half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images
Dec 28, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; New Orleans Saints head coach Kellen Moore leaves the field against the Tennessee Titans during the second half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

The New Orleans Saints are projected to have the second easiest schedule, but their schedule is far from easy. The sentiment is largely based on the premise that the NFC South will be bad, and that's not the foregone conclusion everyone likes to act like it is.

When you look outside of the divisional games, it's a mixed bag of competition level. The games against the Cardinals and Raiders are arguably the two easiest games on the schedule, but other than that, it's difficult to point to a game as an easy matchup. There's also many flat out difficult games on the schedule.

There isn't an easy game in the NFC North or AFC North. Even the matchup against the Browns can't be written off as an easy win. They have a defense that can win games even with a struggling offense, and they built the team up around whoever they'll have at QB. The worst team in the NFC North is likely the Vikings, and they're competent quarterback play away from being a solid team again.

NFC South is poised to get better... eventually

Once again, the strength of schedule is largely based on divisional opponent. The 6 divisional games are nearly half of a team's games, so it should hold more weight. The NFC South has to get better eventually, and they're making the steps forward to have 2026 be the season.

The Panthers and Saints are the most obvious examples of teams ascending. The Saints have a quarterback who's exciting, and they built the entire offseason around stacking his supporting cast. The Panthers made moves to fortify their offensive line and made a pair of big splashes on defense.

Carolina won the division last year, and the Saints were one of the hottest teams at the end of the season. Both hit home runs with Tetairoa McMillan and Tyler Shough last year and followed it up with strong offseasons. There's reasons to believe they can be better than they were last season. Things get tricky with the other two.

The Falcons have seemingly been a quarterback away from being a playoff contender for a couple of years now. A healthy Tua Tagovailoa could be that, but it's hard to truly trust him to stay healthy or be consistent. The roster around him, however, is solid. The Buccaneers just find a way to stay around. They had a great draft, and they kind of feel like the wild card of the division, despite being the most consistent lately.

Maybe I'm more optimistic about the division than most. It doesn't have a recent track record of great teams, but you don't have to squint your eyes to see how the division could be improving. The only question becomes is it this year. There's reason to believe the answer is yes. Pair that with an non-division schedule that's far from easy and it's clear strength of schedule is overblown.

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