A low strength of schedule doesn’t necessarily equate to an easy schedule. Strength of schedule only factors how your opponent either fared last year or expected to fare in the upcoming season. Determining whether or not a schedule is easy also incorporates the opinion of the team as well as their opponents.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the New Orleans Saints as the favorite in just one game. Either they think the schedule is harder than the strength of schedule would suggest, or they're viewing the Saints as one of the worst teams in the league.
It’s the latter.
This is a reinforcement of low expectations for the Saints
We saw this same sentiment with the amount primetime games the Saints have in 2025. The Saints aren't expected to make any noise, and the NFL expects them to put a product on the field unworthy of a national broadcast.
Clearly, the league isn't alone with this opinion. It may be a weak schedule, but it won’t be an easy road for the Saints. The only team New Orleans is favored to defeat is the New York Jets, despite having matchups against the Carolina Panthers twice, New England Patriots, New York Giants and Tennessee Titans.
This feels a bit harsh. The Saints have six games against teams in the top-10 of last year's draft, but are only expected to win one. Even that game is a toss up. They're predicted to lose to the Titans. It wouldn't be dramatic to say the Saints are viewed as the worst team in the NFL.
There's a typical thought that Vegas gives three points home field advantage. Things get worse when you look at it through that lens. The Panthers, Patriots, Giants and Jets all have to make that trip to New Orleans. The Jets, the only team the Saints are favored to defeat are 1.5 point underdogs. This means the Saints are only favored because the game is at home.
The Patriots, Giants and Panthers are all 1.5 point road favorites against New Orleans. Even if you adjust it's still a close game, but this is a clear sign of how the Saints are viewed going into the season. The Saints are firmly in the bottom tier and seen low in that tier.
New coach, new quarterback, poor results a year before and an aging defense. There isn't much to generate belief, but New Orleans is facing teams with bleak outlooks as well, most of which at home. Only to be favored in one game is a slap in the face.