What ESPN’s 2024 stat projections say about the Saints’ team success next season

With the 2024 schedule set, and the majority of offseason moves already completed, the NFL is officially in the prediction part of the offseason. Everyone is analyzing all the factors to determine teams’ records, players’ stats, and how things will look at the end of the season. Of course, we won’t know until the games are actually played, but it never hurts to make predictions.

Recently, ESPN’s Mike Clay projected 2024 stats through simulations, listing out detailed individual and team stats for every team in the league. The projections had a lot of interesting numbers for the New Orleans Saints, so let’s take a look at them.

Saints 2024 stat projections

Starting with quarterback, Derek Carr was projected to only play 15 games. Interestingly enough, Nathan Peterman filled in for the two games Carr missed. That’s clearly a computer error, as Peterman will likely be behind Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler on the depth chart, if he makes the roster at all. Either way, Carr is projected to complete 66% of his passes for 3,817 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.

In the running game, which New Orleans is hoping improves this season, Alvin Kamara led the way with 183 carries for 758 yards and five touchdowns. He’s also projected to add 66 receptions for 484 yards and two additional touchdowns. Jamaal Williams is second in projected rushing yards with 341, slightly outpacing Kendre Miller who is projected to earn 310 rushing yards.

No surprise, Chris Olave is expected to lead the team in receiving, with 86 receptions for 1,246 yards and six touchdowns. Rashid Shaheed, of course, is second, with 54 receptions for 740 yards and four touchdowns. Rookie receiver Bub Means is expected to be the third receiver with 218 receiving yards, and A.T. Perry is projected to only have 43 yards on four catches. We can chalk that up as another computer fault.

Initially seeing those numbers, they aren’t incredibly impressive or bad; it pretty much just points to another mediocre season for the Saints. How much stock should be put in projections, though? Let’s take a look at last season’s projections to see how accurate they were.

Were Saints 2023 stat projections accurate?

Carr 2023 Projected Stats: 16 games, 66%, 3,859 Yds, 23 TDs, 12 INTs
Carr 2023 Actaul Stats: 17 games, 68%, 3,878 Yds, 25 TDs, 8 INTs

Kamara 2023 Projected Stats: 12 games, 157 Att, 666 Yds, 4 TDs, 49 Rec, 448 Yds, 2 TDs
Kamara 2023 Actaul Stats: 13 games, 180 Att, 694 Yds, 5 TDs, 75 Rec, 466 Yds, 1 TD

Olave 2023 Projected Stats: 15 games, 77 Rec, 1,126 Yds, 5 TDs
Olave 2023 Actaul Stats: 16 games, 87 Rec, 1,123 Yds, 5 TDs

As you can see, the projections are kind of scary accurate. New Orleans’ win total last year was even projected to be 10— the team won nine games. This season, the projection is nine. Based on how accurate things were a year ago, there’s reason to worry that the Saints could be looking at another mediocre year. However, as always, the final say will be determined on the field.

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