Saints vs. Buccaneers prediction, odds, spread, injuries, trends for NFL Week 17

Oct 1, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA;  New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs
Oct 1, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs / Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports

The New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers play in a pivotal NFC South showdown in Week 17. The Saints need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive while the Bucs can clinch the NFC South with a win themselves.

The Buccaneers beat the Saints by a final score of 26-9 back in Week 4 and enter this game on a four-game win streak. Can the Saints pull off the upset and stay alive in the race for the division?

If you want my best bets for the rest of the Week 17 slate, you can find them in the latest edition of the "Road to 272 Bets".

In this article, I'm going to break down everything you need to know to bet on this game, including the odds, trends, and my best bet.

If you want to get in on the action, you should place your bets at Bet365. If you click this link and sign up for an account, you'll receive $150 in bonus bets when you place your first $10 wager!

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Saints vs. Buccaneers odds, spread, and total

All odds via Bet365

Saints +2.5
Bucs -2.5

Saints +125
Bucs -140

OVER - 42.5 (-110)
UNDER - 42.5 (-110)

Saints vs. Buccaneers betting trends

  • Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games
  • The UNDER is 15-5 in the Saints' last 20 games
  • Saints are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. Buccaneers
  • Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last five games played in Tampa Bay
  • Buccaneers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games
  • The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these two teams

Saints vs. Buccaneers injury reports

New Orleans Saints injury report

  • Jordan Howden - S - Questionable
  • Kendre Miller - RB - Questionable
  • Chris Olave - WR - Questionable
  • Cameron Jordan - DE - Questionable
  • Erik McCoy - C - Questionable

Tampa Bay Buccaneers injury report

  • Carlton Davis III - CB - Questionable
  • Rakim Jarrett - WR - IR-R
  • Mike Greene - DE - IR-R
  • Ko Kieft -TE - Questionable
  • Shaquil Barrett - LB - Questionable

Saints vs. Buccaneers how to watch

  • Date: Sunday, Dec. 31st
  • Game Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Raymond James Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): FOX
  • New Orleans Saints Record: 7-8
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers Record: 8-7

Saints vs. Buccaneers key players to watch

New Orleans Saints

Chris Olave: The Buccaneers have one of the best run defenses in the NFL, but their secondary leaves a lot to be desired. That means if Chris Olave is a go for Sunday, he's going to be the Saints' key to success against their NFC South rival.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield: The Buccaneers quarterback has shocked everyone and now has a chance to win Comeback Player of the Year. In their first game against the Saints, he completed 25-of-32 passes for 246 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. If he can post those numbers against the Saints again, the Bucs are going to be in a great spot to lock up the NFC South.

Saints vs. Buccaneers prediction and pick

I'm addicted to betting on the Saints for some reason so I'll do it once again and take the field goal with them against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This team looks good on paper and have above average metrics, but yet can't find ways to win games. For example, they're 14th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at 0.0, the same mark as the Eagles, yet sit at just 7-8. With that being said, I have to trust the metrics so I'll back them once again.

71.77% of the Buccaneers' offensive yards come through the air, which is the fourth highest rate in the NFL. That means that a nightmare matchup for them would be a team that can stop the run. In theory, the Saints are that team, ranking inside the top eight in both opponent drop back success rate and opponent drop back EPA.

Let's pump the brakes on the Buccaneers a little bit. They're 25th in the league in Net Yards per Play (-0.5) including a Net Yards per Play metric of -0.2 over their last three games, despite winning each of them.

I'll take the points with New Orleans.

Iain's Pick: Saints +2.5

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!