Saints vs. Browns Prediction and Odds for NFL Week 16 (Weather Causing Historically Low Total)

Iain MacMillan
Dec 18, 2022; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA;  New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) during
Dec 18, 2022; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) during / Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
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Wind, freezing temperatures, and snow are in the forecast for Cleveland, Ohio, on Christmas Eve, which is causing the total in the Browns game against the New Orleans Saints to be historically low.

As of writing this article, the total is set at a measly 31.5 points, which according to statmuse.com, would be the lowest total in an NFL game since November 22nd, 2006. That game also involved the Browns, as they hosted the Denver Broncos in a game that would finish with a final score of 17-7 in favor of Cleveland.

So, how do we handle this from a betting perspective? Let's dive into the odds and then I'll give my thoughts.

Saints vs. Browns Odds, Spread, and Total

Saints vs. Browns Betting Trends

  • Saints are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games
  • The UNDER is 6-1 in the Saints' last seven games
  • Saints are 1-5 ATS in last six games against Browns
  • Browns are 11-2 straight up in last 13 games against Saints
  • Browns are 4-2 ATS in their last six home games
  • Browns are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against NFC South opponents.

Saints vs. Browns Prediction and Pick

Before you rush to bet on the UNDER due to weather, let me inform you that it's too late. The total opened at 36.5 and then once it became public knowledge that the weather would be terrible, people rushed to bet the UNDER and now the total has moved down five points to 31.5. The weather is now completely baked into the line and any value you would have had taking the UNDER, is lost.

So, instead of betting on the total, I'd recommend looking at a side instead.

If the total is going to be low scoring and both teams will be playing in disgusting weather, betting on the team that's getting a field goal worth of points isn't the worst idea in the world. Especially considering the Saints defense is built to stop the run much better than the Browns, who rank 29th in the NFL in opponent yards per carry.

Not only that, but the Saints are statistically the superior team. Take a look at my net yards per play report, which shows New Orleans ranks sixth in the NFL in that ever-important stat, while the Browns are down at 18th.

Trust the Saints to at least keep this game close on Christmas Eve.

You can track Iain’s bets on Betstamp here.


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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