Saints fans are not going to be happy with New Orleans’ win total projection

Now that the 2024 schedule has been released, win totals are being projected. According to projections, things aren’t looking good for the New Orleans Saints.
Atlanta Falcons v New Orleans Saints
Atlanta Falcons v New Orleans Saints / Chris Graythen/GettyImages

Now that the 2024 NFL schedule is released, regular season records can be predicted with far more context. Sure, the opponents were already known, and that’s the most important thing when deciding wins and losses, but there are a ton of other factors. Where is the game slotted in the schedule? Could weather be a factor? Is it after the bye? Those are the kind of things that can now be factored into the 2024 record predictions.

The New Orleans Saints, who have the league’s easiest schedule, also has a schedule that should allow for them to win enough games to return to the playoffs, possibly winning the NFC South. However, that’s not the way all projections see things going for New Orleans.

NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund recently used a model that ran 150,000 simulations for all 272 regular-season games, to project win totals for all 32 teams. For the Saints, the model only projects 7.4 wins.

Saints projected to win seven games in 2024

Frelund points out that Chase Young and Willie Gay Jr. positively impact the defensive forecast for the Saints, but they are still projected to only win seven games, including stumbling out the gate with a tough four-game stretch from Weeks 2-5.

Although New Orleans is staring down a tough start to the season, seven wins seems a bit harsh to a Saints team that won nine games last season. While New Orleans didn’t drastically improve this offseason, the team didn’t really get worse either. Additionally, the schedule isn’t a tough one— at least based on last season’s win totals. The Saints should be be able to get four wins in the NFC South alone.

Ultimately, projections and predictions are just that. The games aren’t played on paper or in computer simulations. The New Orleans Saints must go out each week and prove that they’re capable of winning more than seven games.