The New Orleans Saints used a second-round pick on quarterback Tyler Shough, and with Derek Carr now retired, Shough has the chance to start as a rookie. However, people aren’t sure what to expect from the rookie quarterback, who entered the league as a polarizing prospect. As he enters a quarterback competition with two other unestablished QBs, people are predicting what year one could look like for Shough.
Chris Trapasso recently joined in on the projections, looking at the best- and worst-case scenario for every rookie quarterback. Assuming that the guys got a sizeable starting opportunity, Trapasso laid out what their stats could look like if everything went right, and how they’ll look if everything went wrong.
For Shough, the numbers were pretty modest in both scenarios, but the worst-case scenario was especially terrifying because the rookie quarterback was predicted to throw more interceptions than touchdowns. Here’s a look at Trapasso’s full outlook.
- Best-case scenario: 61% completion, 7.0 yards per attempt, 2,450 passing yards, 13 TD passes, 8 INTs, 35 sacks, 85.0 rating
- Worst-case scenario: 57% completion, 6.0 yards per attempt, 2,100 passing yards, 7 TD passes, 9 INTs, 39 sacks, 70.6 rating
Trapasso was honest that he has no idea what will happen with the Saints quarterback room, but for this exercise, he operated with the assumption that Shough will have 350 passing attempts. The rookie’s best-case scenario was a modest year with just 13 passing touchdowns and eight interceptions, while the worst case was nine interceptions to seven touchdowns.
Both scenarios would leave a lot to be desired, and unless the team is finding a way to win in spite of Shough’s performances, the Saints will likely be an average team at best in both situations. However, it would only be year one for a rookie quarterback, and that doesn’t have to be representative of what the quarterback’s career would look like.
Trapasso acknowledged Shough’s strengths, saying the rookie quarterback has “above-average arm talent and certainly demonstrated a flair for the acrobatic throw/play.” The writer also highlighted Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed as quality playmakers for the QB, but he ended by saying he still wouldn’t be shocked if the Saints offense floundered.