The New Orleans Saints have been one of the worst fourth down teams in the NFL since Sean Payton left. It's been a relative constant in both the Dennis Allen and Kellen Moore era. The Moore era is only a season in, so there's time to correct it. There should be urgency around correcting the problem as well.
Pro Football Focus' Bradley Locker took a look at how each team has performed on fourth down from 2021-2025. The Saints have the second worst fourth down conversion rate of all 32 teams during that time. In addition to poor conversion rate, they also have the fifth worst average yards per attempt. Payton was the head coach at the top of this time, however, the Saints were middle of the pack in fourth down conversions in 2021.
After the 2021 campaign, the Saints have broken out of the bottom 10 one time in this metric. It's been a consistent issue, but it would be easier to disregard if it got better in Moore's debut season. It didn't. The Saints were the second worst team on fourth down this past year.
The Saints are better equipped to break the trend in 2026
2026 could be the season the Saints break the trend, because the Saints have all the tools to succeed in any fourth down situation. Time will tell if they decide to be more aggressive on fourth down. They haven't opted to go for it often. Regardless, the Saints are now equipped with the talent to threaten defenses on the final down.
The Saints seem to have found their quarterback. Shough will have to prove he's a franchise leader, but he's inspired confidence in a way his predecessors haven't. Having a quarterback is the key to feeling good in every situation. It's what's around him that could be key to changing recent fourth quarter trends.
The Saints have the offensive line that should be able to get push on fourth and short situations. They have the receivers for any reasonable distance, but let's unpack that even deeper. Devaughn Vele gives Shough a bigger frame to target on 4th and 5 and has shown the knack to get 10-15 yards down the field on third downs. Olave and Tyson are dynamic threats who can get a first down down the field.
If you want to bring it back to Shough, he has the mobility to convert a fourth and medium into a first down with his legs. The best option is to just avoid fourth downs as often as possible. When it inevitably happens, though, the Saints have the firepower to get out of the NFL's basement.
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