There's two schools of thought when it comes to draft analysis: what a team should do verssus what a team is most likely to do. Those two things rarely seem to be one in the same. A prime example of this is the New Orleans Saints' philosophy to trading in the first round.
ESPN's Bill Barnwell did a first round mock draft with all trades. In this, he had the Saints trading up due to Mickey Loomis' history. Barnewell later wrote a piece about how the Saints should trade back.
"The Saints should prioritize adding premium picks in bulk as opposed to focusing on adding one star-level talent. It would be tough to turn down Ohio State wide receiver Carnell Tate if he's still on the board at No. 8, but it would also be a surprise if the Titans, Browns and Commanders all passed on him. There should be plenty of talent at wideout available in the bottom half of Round 1, and moving down would allow the Saints to comprehensively address both receiver and the secondary within the top 75 picks of the draft."
Forget a trade down. The Saints should stick and pick
Discussion around trading back in the NFL Draft has one core idealistic assumption. There’s the assumption that you’ll still land your guy or the team has many players with the same exact grade. That works if you trade a couple of spots, but going down five picks adds a big level of uncertainty. Maybe fans are ok with the gamble.
The Saints have a premium spot inside the top-10. Go grab your guy. It makes sense to trade out of the eighth pick if you don't think a player is worth that selection. Then, you play the board and hope a team wants to jump ahead of the Chiefs. If your guy is there, however, you grab him and worry about accumulating more picks later. Don't trade back for the name of trading back.
That's where the disagrement with Barnwell comes in. The Saints have two picks in the top 50 and three in the top 75. They can address receiver and the secondary within the top 75 with no trades at all and still get the star-level talent in the first round.
Let's put it this way, the Saints should not trade back if they're face to face with Caleb Downs at 8. If they want to stack more picks, trade back from 42. The Saints are in good position to add players who can make an immediate impact in the first 3 rounds with the picks they have.
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