Another season, another year the New Orleans Saints walk in with one of the easiest schedules. It has been the case over the last couple of years of the Derek Carr-Dennis Allen era, but the Saints have yet to capitalize. Could that change under Kellen Moore and Tyler Shough or Spencer Rattler under center?
Sharp Football Analysis' Warren Sharp broke down the toughest and easiest schedules in the NFL by using projected win totals from Vegas opposed to the typical method of using record's from last year. He finds that process "lazy, inaccurate, and inefficient."
While using forecasted win totals is still an inexact science, it takes in account for free agency additions and departures, draft picks, and major players who may return from injuries.
Vegas predicts the Saints' win total at 6.5. Comparatively, that's tied for the 5th-worst projected win total in the NFL. It's hard to argue the prediction. The Saints walk into 2025 with a rookie head coach and likely an inexperienced quarterback. If Carr does suit up for the Saints, that number could go up by a game or two. The projection wouldn't rise much.
More concerningly, the Saints low expectations are coupled with the third-easiest schedule. The Atlanta Falcons are next at fourth-easiest, but there's a significant gap in strength of schedule between Saints and Falcons.
The NFC South still isn't viewed as a strong division. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the best projected win total at 9.5. The NFC South's struggles contribute to each team having an easier than average schedule, because they all get to play each other. In turn, this gives each team a fighting chance at the divisional title.
If the Saints want to be the first team to dethrone the Buccaneers in nearly half a decade, Moore will have to quickly get the best out of Shough or Rattler. Brandon Staley will have to build the defense into an average unit. There were many flaws for the Saints to address this offseason, and it feels like the responsibility to improve has been placed primarily on coaching
The division is for the taking, so slight improvement could go a long way purely in the divisional race. With the third-easiest schedule and a close division, it'll be interesting to see how Moore performs in Year 1.