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This is how we’re betting the big game:
Super Bowl 56 Prediction
Joe Burrow and the Bengals have overcome significant obstacles on their way to their first Super Bowl since the 1988 season. They withstood nine sacks from the Titans en route to a last second victory in the divisional round and came back from an 18-point deficit against the Chiefs to win the AFC Championship game. Cincy is 7-0 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games as underdogs and have won six of them outright.
They’ll hope to continue their remarkable streak as underdogs with their latest obstacle to overcome: the best defense they’ve played all year in front of their own home crowd. Between Aaron Donald, Leonard Floyd and Von Miller, the Rams have a ferocious pass rush and should feast on the Bengals’ battered offensive line.
Los Angeles is no slouch on the offensive end, either, as Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. have the passing game humming. Bengals Defensive Coordinator Lou Anarumo has been marvelous at making adjustments and it’ll be a fascinating chess match between him and Rams Head Coach Sean McVay as they try to find a Super Bowl checkmate.
I think the Rams will win, but there are trends I just can’t ignore when it comes to the spread. The Bengals are feisty. In their nine games against playoff teams this year (including the postseason), Cincy would have gone 9-0 ATS had they been 4.5-point underdogs in each.
Meanwhile, the Rams have struggled as a favorite against good teams. They’re 7-10 ATS as a favorite this year (including postseason) but those spread wins came against the Cardinals, the Vikings, the Seahawks twice, the Jaguars, the Giants, and the Bears. You’ll notice that besides the Cardinals win in the playoffs, those are all pretty bad teams. Only the Seahawks kept their coach. In fact, the only game the Rams covered the spread against a playoff team was that win over Arizona in the Wild Card Round.
In addition to their own recent history, Super Bowl history at large also suggests the Rams are a bad bet to cover. Since 2000, Super Bowl favorites of four points or more are just 2-10-1 ATS and have lost eight times outright.
The Bengals will certainly have their hands full, but the spread is too big for me to ignore the trends going against the Rams. I’m taking the Bengals +4 (-110) to keep it close and give us one more magical game before the season reaches its conclusion.
I’ll also be taking the under 48.5 (-110) in this one. Both teams’ coaches have been criticized for conservative game-management, with Taylor calling too many runs and McVay hesitant to go for it on on 4th down.
As a result, the under has been a great bet for both teams. The under is 4-0 in the Bengals’ last four games as their defense has stepped up and the offensive line has faltered. When the Rams are a favorite, they’ve shied away from airing it out and instead typically rely on the run game, resulting in the under going 7-3 in their last 10 as a favorite.
Give me the Bengals and the under. Sorry, Odell.
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