Turnovers Are Fluky
Another pushback of this riskier style of play is that it will lead to more turnovers.
Winning the turnover battle is certainly important. Getting an easy field position for a quick touchdown can make or break a game, and there is a high correlation between turnover margin.
The problem is that turnovers are incredibly difficult to predict, according to Hermsmeyer:
"“Yet despite their clear importance, the number of turnovers a team creates in one season has no bearing on how many turnovers the team will create in the next. Both interceptions and fumbles are completely unpredictable from season to season at the team level.”"
Quarterbacks have no effect over if a defender drops an interception or not. According to Pro Football Focus, Josh Allen led the league in turnover-worthy plays, yet he did not lead the league in turnovers. In fact, he is tied for 10th in interceptions.
Consequently, although he played a riskier style of football, it did not affect Buffalo, particularly since it yielded much more positive plays.
We saw down the stretch that Drew Brees had a lot of dropped interceptions, but against the Bucs, he wasn’t so lucky. At the end of the day, turnover luck is far too unstable to even try to predict. With that being said, why not chase a quarterback capable of high-end production?