Despite losing to Packers, Saints’ Super Bowl odds remain second best
The Saints, although they lost to the Eagles and dropped to the second seed in the NFC, still have the second-best Super Bowl odds per FiveThirtyEight.
The Philadelphia Eagles, led by rookie Jalen Hurts, gave it to the New Orleans Saints in Week 14. That didn’t matter to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight predictions as the Saints still have the second-best odds to make the Super Bowl.
According to those projections, the Saints have a 23 percent chance of reaching the Super Bowl for the NFC. However, they lost their top seed in the conference so their odds of being able to snag the long first-round bye is now down to just 32 percent.
As we noticed last season when a Week 14 loss put them out of contention for a first-round bye, it could make all the difference in the world if you have to play or not on Wild Card weekend. Every team is full of professionals, and the Vikings or Cardinals would pose a dangerous threat.
The thought is that the Saints’ defense and a healthy offense could triumph over just about any other opponent. They have the league’s best defense, one that was put to the test last Sunday and will have an even greater challenge this Sunday.
As for the team actually making the Super Bowl, the only franchise with a better chance is their Week 15 opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs. They are given a 33 percent chance to reach the Super Bowl which almost seems low.
New Orleans has Kansas City, Minnesota, and then Carolina on their schedule still. They should easily go 2-1 and clinch a top-two seed in the conference. However, 3-0 and a Packers loss is the only way they can manage to regain control of the conference.
With Drew Brees getting healthier and having practiced, there’s hope he returns and leads the Saints to their second Super Bowl in franchise history. Brees has shown he can get them there, but now 41, he’ll need quite a bit of help along the way.
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That said, these rankings seem fair, and we’ll continue to track how they change after each week. Here’s what we wrote about the team’s Super Bowl odds prior to Week 13.