The Saints cannot continue to count on strong defensive performance to win games
What To Expect From Defense Moving Forward
When the Saints were struggling defensively, it was mostly due to their inability to limit third-down conversions, penalties, and red-zone touchdowns.
They still rank 31st in red-zone touchdown rate allowed, but they’ve vaulted up to 11th in third-down conversion rate allowed, and now have the 14th-least penalties per game. In other words, they are benefitting from positive regression, and are no longer beating themselves.
Coming into the season, the Saints were expected to be a top-tier defense. They were cited for having a deep defensive line, talented coverage players, and, honestly, no clear weak links. That didn’t play out early, as their veterans let them down, but now, that has certainly changed.
The key down the stretch will be the performance of cornerback Marshon Lattimore. So far this season, he is allowing 104.7 passer rating, which is by far the worst of his career.
He is being targeted more, as evidenced by his 13.2 average depth of target allowed, according to Pro Football Reference, and so far, he has struggled.
On the bright side, he has a pass deflection in each of his last three games, and has dealt with injuries all season, but this defense is still waiting for him to get back to his rookie-season form, especially as he looks for a new contract.
Also, New Orleans is unlikely to benefit from turnover luck like they’ve been able to in the past. They have forced at least one turnover in each of their past five games, and their 3 takeaways/game over the past three games leads the league.
Few statistics are more unstable than turnovers forced, meaning that they’ll have to make due without so much luck.
Playing the Falcons again, especially if receiver Julio Jones, will be tough. So will playing the Vikings and Panthers. The Chiefs in Week 15?
Don’t even think about stopping them. Fortunately, no offense seems like more fun to play against than the Eagles (Week 14), but overall, the Saints will face a difficult slate of passing attacks moving forward.