Despite not having much in the way of established receiving talent, the New Orleans Saints did not add a wide receiver this offseason. Do they have enough options in-house to support a functioning passing attack?
If there is something that has been a staple of the Saints during Sean Payton’s tenure as head coach, it’s a productive offense. In fact, during his time in New Orleans, he has never led a below-average offense, based on yards per play.
However, last season marked his worst rank (14th). Why was this the case? Well, between Drew Brees’ decline in production and missing time due to injury, the quarterback position played a great deal in it.
Nevertheless, that wouldn’t appear to be the only reason why. This is a team that has prided itself on having ample talent at the receiver position, as Brees’ presence allowed them to take chances on mid-round picks and get the most out of their playmakers. Last year, though, injuries hit the receiving corps hard, and without anyone generating consistent separation, the offense faltered.
Now with Jameis Winston likely under center, the Saints will need to have a passing attack that allows him to throw the ball down the field, based on his preferred style of play. However, after parting ways with Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook, and failing to add a playmaker in free agency or the draft, the Saints are relying a lot on their in-house options.
Will this approach work out for them? Let’s take a closer look!
All Stats Courtesy of Pro Football Reference and Player Profiler
Michael Thomas is the No. 1 wide receiver for the Saints
Those injuries that the Saints dealt with last season that were referred to in the introduction? Look no further than Michael Thomas, who played in just seven games last season due to a multitude of injuries, and even then, was never fully healthy. His 62.6 yards per game were a career-low, as were his 5.7 receptions per game,11 yards/reception, and eight yards/target.
Fortunately for the Saints, Thomas should be fully healthy in 2021. If so, we’re talking about a receiver who broke the receptions record in 2019, and also totaled over 3,000 receiving yards in consecutive All-Pro seasons. In other words, assuming he’s healthy, he’s far from a concern for the Saints. In fact, his presence as an elite No. 1 receiver may be the team’s saving grace.
The one question mark with Thomas is how will he adjust to a much different quarterback? With Brees, he was used much more as an intermediate threat; his average depth of target never was over 10 yards. However, Winston takes much more chances down the field, meaning that Thomas will be utilized much differently.
However, there is nothing to suggest that Thomas won’t succeed in a more downfield role. First, there’s his contested catch ability. His 63.3% contested catch rate in 2019 ranked fourth in the NFL, and over his time in the NFL, he’s been truly elite in that regard:
Although not a burner, Thomas is a nuanced route runner who has no trouble gaining separation, in addition to his prowess with contested catches. Even then, Winston’s success with Evans as a contested-catch target down the field was exceptional, so if that’s Thomas’ role, the duo should flourish together. Rather, the questions are with the rest of the receiving corps.
Can Tre’Quan Smith establish himself as the Saints No. 2 wide receiver?
A common trend with the Saints is their consistent investment in playmakers at various stages of the draft. They’ve gotten great success from the likes of Kenny Stills, Brandin Cooks, and Jimmy Graham, and were able to package all of them into future draft capital.
A similar success story was the hope when they drafted Tre’Quan Smith out of UCF in the third round of the 2018 draft. Initially, with 15.3 yards/reception and 9.7 yards/target in his rookie season, there was a lot to be encouraged about.
However, since then, the development has plateaued. Smith has struggled to stay healthy in all three seasons of his career, and although his 32 yards/game was a career-high, his nine yards/target was a career-low, his production this year was mostly due to an increase in targets due to an injured receiving corps.
Heading into his final season under contract, this is a pivotal time for Smith to produce. Luckily, he has the perfect quarterback to help him in Winston. Whereas Brees would be more hesitant to take chances down the field, Winston won’t be afraid to get Smith involved in the vertical passing game, which should immediately increase his production.
In Smith’s encouraging rookie season, his average depth of target was 2.8 yards (11.8) higher than it has been in the subsequent two seasons, and with his 6’2″ frame and athleticism, he profiles as someone who should be utilized more as a downfield threat. Drops remain a concern with him, but that’s a volatile statistic, and the more chances he gets, the greater the potential pay-off could be.
Consider him a boom-or-bust option for New Orleans. Ideally, he’d be more of a No. 4 receiver that elevates the ceiling of an offense, but the Saints will be relying on him to be more than that.
Can Marquez Callaway go from UDFA to Saints star?
It’s not common that undrafted rookie free agents play a meaningful role for a Super Bowl contending team, but that’s the position Marquez Callaway found himself in last year.
To be fair, it was mainly out of necessity due to injury, but Callaway’s production was very encouraging. Serving more as a target in the short passing game (8.4 average depth of target), he hauled in 77.8% of the passes thrown his way and performed well when asked to be a starter. For instance, he had eight receptions for 75 yards in Week 7 vs the Panthers, and his overall 1.61 yards/route run is quite respectable.
Does Callaway profile as a starting receiver moving forward? That’s unclear.
After all, there’s a reason he went undrafted — He doesn’t fit the mold of a building block at the position. He never totaled more than 635 receiving yards during his four-year career at Tennessee, and his 4.55 40-yard dash demonstrates his overall limited athleticism. He averaged just 10.1 yards per reception, after all, and does not figure as a big-play threat moving forward.
In critical situations, such as on third downs and in the red zone, his skillset is exceptionally useful. Once again, though, the limited overall pay-off of those abilities make him better suited as a depth option, as opposed to someone who’s going to consistently threaten opposing defenses. Perhaps Winston will give him chances to shine with contested catches, but it’ll take incredible prowess there to justify him as a starting receiver this season.
What can the Saints expect from DeonteHarris?
A player who likely holds a special place in Saints fans’ hearts, Deonte Harris doesn’t need to solidify himself as a receiving option to have a role on the roster moving forward.
After leading the league in punt return yards as a rookie in 2019 while being named as an All-Pro returner, Harris continued his dominance in the return game in 2020, averaging an impressive 12.2 yards per punt return. There are few kick returners that have the dynamism that he has:
However, Harris did flash the ability to be more than just a special teams asset late in 2020, which adds a lot of intrigue heading into 2021. Not only did he total 186 receiving yards with multiple games over 40 receiving yards, but he demonstrated his abilities after the catch with 6.4 yards after the catch per reception.
The main coming-out party, though, was in the playoffs. Serving as the primary slot option in the team’s Wild Card game against the Bears, Harris accumulated 83 receiving yards while catching all seven of his targets, averaging 8.4 yards after catch per reception. All of a sudden, he wasn’t just producing as an occasional player, but an actual starter.
Then again, Harris is heading into his third season in the NFL with no track record coming out of Assumption College. Additionally, his four-average depth of target indicates he’s still likely to be used more as a “gadget” option than a true receiver.
As a versatile weapon out of the backfield or in the slot, similarly to Percy Harvin and draft prospects Kadarius Toney and Rondale Moore, his prowess as a runner makes him well-suited to succeed. Once again, though, relying on him to be a starting slot receiver would be quite the risk.
The Saints found a steal in the seventh round with Kawaan Baker.
With the impact the Saints have gotten from their undrafted free agents, you’d imagine they’d expect the same from a seventh-round pick. Really, given the state of their receiving corps, they need Kawaan Baker to step up for them.
A relative unknown coming out of South Alabama, it’s easy to see what the Saints like in Baker. Despite playing in just 10 games last season, he posted 651 receiving yards as a senior and has been utilized as a rushing threat (251 rushing yards 2018) and as a returner (264 return yards 2020). With a very impressive relative athletic score of 9.08 out of 10 and a 4.41 40-yard dash, he’s quite the athlete, making him the ideal moldable project for Sean Payton.
Success as a runner, dynamic athlete, likely option in the slot, that sounds a lot like the hope for Deonte Harris. However, Baker would appear to be the much better option as an overall receiver.
Having both Harris and Baker on the roster is important, as Harris’ presence was missed greatly last year when he went down with an injury, and it will be exciting to see the two compete for a role as an overall “jitterbug” for this offense. There is definitely a path for Baker overachieving all expectations of a typical seventh-round pick.
AdamTrautman needs to step it up for the Saints.
As mentioned, it’s rare for the Saints to not come out of the draft without adding at least one playmaker. In 2020, Adam Trautman earned that honor.
In fact, the team traded all of their Day 3 picks in that draft to move up to select him, which is quite the amount to invest on a singular player. Thus, they clearly saw something in him coming out of Dayton, and the numbers would agree:
Yes, it came at Dayton, but a 94.2 PFF grade is absurd efficiency, and he also performed well at the Senior Bowl. Meanwhile, albeit in a limited role, he still did total 171 receiving yards and 10.7 yards/target as a rookie, which is respectable since he didn’t factor much in the passing game.
Now, however, expectations will be much greater for Trautman. The developmental curve for tight ends means it generally takes until their second or third season to settle in, so it was optimal for the Saints to draft him before needing him to be a starter.
With 4.8 40-yard dash speed, he’s limited to being much more of an intermediate target who breaks tackles after the catch, but his sure-handedness over the middle will be a nice complement for their offense. While not a game-breaker, he profiles well as a starting tight end moving forward.
The Saints signed Nick Vannett as tight end depth.
The New Orleans Saints actually didn’t completely go through free agency without adding a receiving option, as they signed Nick Vannett to a three-year, $8 million deal to serve as a complementary tight end.
To be fair, Vannett’s deal is really a two-year, $5 million contract with an option for a third year, but the fact they brought him in demonstrates some hope he’ll mesh well with Trautman to get satisfactory production from the tight end position.
Considering he’s never topped 300 receiving yards in a season during his five-year career, that might seem like a stretch, and he’s quite limited as an athlete. My guess is the Saints hope he can be Jameis Winston’s version of Cameron Brate as a tall (6’6″) receiving option in the red zone, though that’s a total projection without much in the way of a track record for a 28-year-old.
Other Options
In addition to Callaway, Juwan Johnson and Lil-Jordan Humphrey were undrafted free agent rookies who stuck on the Saints roster last season. Both profile as big-body contested-catch options, though it will be difficult for them to make the team with five wide receivers clearly ahead of them. The same goes for recent signees Eassop Winston Jr., Jake Lampman, and Jalen McCleskey.
Outside of Trautman and Vannett, the Saints will at least carry one more tight end. Garrett Griffin appears to be the most likely candidate, but keep an eye on undrafted rookie Dylan Soehner. We’ve established by now that Payton doesn’t care much about draft status when it comes to opportunity, and Soehner’s reported blocking acumen may give a leg up to replace the now-retired Josh Hill.
With quality veterans on the market, such as Kenny Stills, Dede Westbrook, and Marquise Lee, it’d be nice to see the Saints add more depth to their receiving corps, particularly another deep threat to pair with Winston. However, at the moment, it appears they are settled with their current roster, though their financial situation gives them little choice.
What can the Saints expect from their wide receivers?
Sean Payton will try to continue his streak of leading an above-average offense, but it’s going to be complicated given the team’s current state of playmakers.
Michael Thomas remains a fantastic receiver and will get to showcase his abilities down the field much more with Winston, but the rest of the group is filled with question marks.
- What version of Tre’Quan Smith are the Saints getting?
- Is there any “upside” with Marquez Callaway or Adam Trautman?
- Can Deonte Harris or Kawaan Baker be more than “gadget” options?
The answers to these questions may define New Orleans’ entire season.
It’s going to be a tough transition in the post-Drew Brees era and given the team’s “all-in” mentality to try to win a Super Bowl title during his final years, it’s not a surprise to see them finally have to pay the bill.
However, it’s unfortunate it’s coming at the expense of the most important facet of play (outside of quarterback) based on positional value. Winston has a strong offensive line and a few well-regarded playmakers, but he might find himself consistently targeting Thomas to stay afloat.
Consider this a developmental season for the Saints offense. Will that ultimately turn out to be a positive? Only time will tell, but there is plenty of reason to be skeptical.