Diving deeper into the Saints’ 2021 NFL Draft class

With the 28th overall pick in the draft, the Saints were expected to be a side story in a quarterback-heavy draft. Instead, rumors about them trading up was one of the key stories of the day- it wouldn’t be a draft without them trying to be aggressive, after all!

In the end, however, New Orleans stood pat, though they did make some trade-ups in other rounds. Given their tough financial situation, they were under more pressure to hit on their draft picks than other teams. Thus, these six players, especially the top three, will be expected to play some role in the future.

Did the Saints have a successful draft? Were these players the optimal selections at the given spots? Let’s taker a closer look!

Today, we’ll be going over each of these six prospects’ profiles, analyzing their fit to the organization, and finally, assessing whether the team was correct to pick him. At the end, I’ll also look at some “what ifs” should New Orleans had been successful in trading up, as well as what I would have done during the draft.

Without further adieu, let’s take a deeper dive into the Saints’ 2021 rookie class!

Saints Draft: Round 1, Pick 28 – EDGE Payton Turner, Houston

After standing pat with the No. 28 overall selection, the Saints had perhaps the most surprising pick of the first round, selecting edge rusher Payton Turner from Houston.

It wasn’t necessarily that the team chose an edge rusher that was surprising, as Marcus Davenport still hasn’t proven to be capable of more than a rotational workload, and Cameron Jordan is now 32 years old. Remember, this defense loves to mix and match its pass rushers to keep everyone fresh.

However, Turner wasn’t seen as a first-round caliber prospect by many. He was ranked No. 60 on The Athletic’s consensus rankings, and many thought he could be around for New Orleans’ second-round pick. Now, I’m skeptical of that, as there had been rumors that he was moving up draft boards. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that when taking a “wisdom of the crowds” approach, this appears to be a reach.

Essentially, the Saints are gambling on two aspects of Turner’s profile: his production in a small sample size in 2020 and his athleticism. According to Pro Football Focus, Turner increased his pass-rush grade to 91.7 in true past sets this past season, albeit with just 200 total snaps.

Furthermore, he had more sacks (5) than he had in the three seasons prior (4). Generally, you’d be worried about a player breaking out when he’s older than his competition, but it is worth noting that this was Turner’s second season as an edge rusher, as he was used more as an interior rusher earlier in his career. For this reason, it’s easier to excuse him for his lackluster production previously, though you’d still hope for a stronger overall track record.

Really, though, the Saints are doing what they’ve always done — betting on a player’s athleticism. Turner’s relative athletic score was one of the highest of this class, as he measured in at 35 3/8 arms and clocked a 7.01 three-cone time per his draft profile on NFL.com. That combination of length and athleticism is extremely rare, and the justification for selecting him is very similar to it was when they traded Davenport.

That said, edge rusher is a position where production is stable from college to pro, and not only were they more highly-regarded edge rushers available (only two had been selected), there were also other well-regarded players available at other spots.

Had they truly wanted to improve their defensive line, why not Alabama’s Christian Barmore, an interior rusher who has more production, is young for the class, and played in the SEC? Additionally, safety Trevon Moehrig and cornerbacks Eric Stokes and Asante Samuel Jr. would’ve demonstrated an attempt to start to replenish their secondary again, something they haven’t done in recent drafts.

The most polarizing picks generally have a relatively high bust rate, and this is quite a risky selection for a team that needed to hit on their top pick so badly. My model’s top comparison for him is former Jets edge rusher Jordan Jenkins, who has been a solid pass rusher, yet not someone who has generally been coveted on the open market.

Perhaps he can hit on his high ceiling comparisons from my model, such as Montez Sweat, but with Jenkins being the mean comparison, you’d perhaps want to aim for more with such an important pick. There were simply too many alternatives to justify this pick, given the team’s predicament.

Model Rank: 69 (+41)

Grade: C-

Alternative Pick: IDL Christian Barmore, Alabama

Saints Draft: Round 2, Pick 60 – LB Pete Werner, Ohio State

Continuing to beef up their defensive front seven, the Saints did what many fans were hoping they would do, adding a linebacker in Ohio State’s Pete Werner with the No. 60 overall pick.

With little depth at the position outside of Demario Davis, it was obvious that linebacker was a short-term need for the Saints. However, teams don’t draft for need, especially in the second round, and it’s worth noting that linebacker:

• a) isn’t a highly-valued position and
• b) comes with a high adjustment curve to the NFL level.

For this reason, the prospect the Saints are targeting needs to pass a very high bar. Ultimately, it’s unclear if Werner passes that bar. Most scouting reports indicate that his awareness in coverage can be inconsistent, meaning that he’ll need some mental refinement at the next level. That speaks to a very high adjustment curve and will place extra pressure on his athleticism.

To that end, he did test out well with a 6.9 three-cone drill, though reports are more mixed on whether that change of direction consistently shows up on the playing field. Also, for a “mike linebacker”, Werner (6’0″, 237 pounds) is on the lighter side and considering he missed 14.6% of his tackles over the past three seasons, according to Florian Hollach of sportskeeda.com, that could be problematic.

There is a lot to like about Werner as well. He’s got a lot of experience playing in the middle of a successful defense in the Big 10, has an excellent change of direction skills, and is certainly the type of explosive player that fits the Saints defense well. In a lot of ways, he projects similarly to Kwon Alexander, who fans grew accustomed to watching last season.

Based on my model’s projections, Werner’s top comparison would be Dolphins linebacker Jerome Baker, who has struggled in run defense and has been closer to average in coverage. When it’s all said and done, though, he’s been a competent No. 2 linebacker, which is all you really need at the position. As long as those are the expectations for Werner, he should meet them, though it is worth questioning if a traditional mike linebacker is the optimal use of a second-round pick.

Grade: C-

Model Rank: 99 (+31)

Saints Draft: Round 3, Pick 76 (via DEN) – CB Paulson Adebo, Stanford

The Saints trading up in a draft isn’t a possibility, it’s an inevitability. They had to wait until the third round, yet with cornerback Paulson Adebo available, they quickly surrounded an additional third-round pick to move up 23 spots to select the Stanford cornerback. That’s quite the lofty price to pay, demonstrating their infatuation for Adebo.

Fortunately, Adebo is a prospect that I would expect them to be infatuated in. In an article I wrote for mvpsportstalk.com, here is what I had to say about Adebo:

"I’m struggling to see the downside of Adebo. His tackling numbers aren’t great, but if you’re drafting a cornerback for his run defense, that’s a problem in it of itself. He seems to be a victim of recency bias, as he opted out of the 2020 season, and if that’s the case, then a lucky team will be able to select him with a late third-round pick. It may seem crazy that a player like this is getting enough recognition, but, remember, third-round pick Cameron Dantzler and fourth-round pick L’Jarius Sneed were the top-two graded rookie cornerbacks this season! I wouldn’t be surprised if Adebo has a similar impact for whoever drafts him.”"

This is praise that I did not give out lightly for the Stanford product. The Saints love their athletic defenders, and Adebo’s length and speed definitely check all of the boxes there. Then, you add in that he has multiple high-end seasons of production, and there is a lot to like. Ball production is very stable from college to pro, so to see Adebo consistently break up passes is very encouraging. Really, had he not opted out, we’d likely be talking about him at least one round higher than he was ultimately selected.

According to my model, one of Adebo’s comparisons are quite encouraging: former Bengals cornerback William Jackson III, who just signed a $42 million deal with Washington. There are some other ones, such as Gareon Conley, that are less optimistic, but the track record of cornerbacks with strong ball production accumulating to the NFL level is very strong. I’m not in love with the cost of the trade, but Adebo is an excellent prospect and someone who fits in greatly with the Saints moving forward.

Grade: B (A+ without trade up)

Model Rank: 58th (-16)

Saints Draft: Round 4, Pick133 – QB Ian Book, Notre Dame

On the third day of the draft, the Saints finally drafted an offensive player, yet perhaps not the one anyone expected.

By all accounts, Notre Dame’s Ian Book was not a lock to get drafted in this class. Nevertheless, head coach Sean Payton clearly took a liking to him, spending a fourth-round pick on him.

Is this pick justifiable? Honestly, I don’t believe so. By all accounts, Book has limited arm strength, struggles to go through progressions, and isn’t particularly athletic. Does that sound like even a viable backup option? If this was the sentiment of one scouting report, perhaps that wouldn’t be as much of a worry, but the fact that this is essentially a consensus opinion is concerning.

For his career, Book averaged 7.8 yards per pass attempt and wasn’t even listed as a top-30 quarterback in college football by Pro Football Focus coming into the season.

In other words, the Saints selected before even his top proponents thought he’d be drafted. For a team with a roster that is aging and has thinned out, to spend a fourth-round pick on a quarterback that many didn’t believe would be drafted and aren’t sure will even be a backup quarterback is hard to fathom; his top model comparison is Bengals’ quarterback Brandon Allen, who has mainly been a third-string quarterback for his respective teams. Consider this a case of Payton liking the player, and failing to understand the importance of value when it comes to the draft.

Grade: D

Model Rank: 271 (+138)

Saints Draft: Pick 206 (via IND) – OT Landon Young, Kentucky

Even at the end of the draft, the Saints still have an itch to move up the board!

By trading away the first pick in the seventh round to the Colts, New Orleans was able to move up 12 spots to select offensive tackle Landon Young.

According to Draft Network, Young is an accomplished player with 26 career starts in the SEC, and it shows in technique. However, he also lacks the length and foot speed that tackles in the NFL have, which gives him a very low margin for error.

For the most part, most had Young as a fringe-roster player, someone likely to go undrafted. That’s not that different from the standard profile of a sixth-round pick, but one that you’re trading up to move up just 12 spots to obtain? As his top comparison of Bengals’ tackle Fred Johnson demonstrates, he isn’t likely to ever be someone you’re comfortable filling in at offensive tackle, and with offensive line depth present, it’s unclear why Payton felt so obliged to move up to draft him.

Grade: D

Model Rank: 287th (+81)

Saints Draft: Round 7, Pick 255 – WR Kawaan Baker, South Alabama

Finally, the Saints selected a receiver! It might have taken until their last pick to dose, but at least they didn’t come away empty-handed! Coming out of South Alabama, Kawaan Baker wasn’t a very well-known prospect, but he did demonstrate production from the slot.

Forcing missed tackles and creating yardage after the catch are two statistical indicators of future success, so perhaps Baker can exceed his draft position in New Orleans. For the most part, he appears to be limited to the slot and doesn’t have a strong track record of dominant production, which you’d hope at a small conference, but he’s a classic Sean Payton receiver; productiveness front he slot and the versatility to be utilized on screens and as a runner (251 rushing yards as a sophomore).

I know he’s a seventh-round pick, but, hey, his model projection is similar to Darnell Mooney’s as a prospect, and the former fifth-round pick was a very productive player for the Bears last year. Perhaps Baker can follow a similar path!

Grade: B

Model Rank: 304 (+49)

“What if” for the Saints in the 2021 NFL Draft?

As I alluded to in the beginning, the Saints were trying desperately to trade up significantly, even into the top ten.

Many pointed to this being for a cornerback, and head coach Sean Payton confirmed that they were targeting top cornerback prospects Jaycee Horn and Patrick Surtain. Both were productive in the SEC, are underclassmen, and tested tremendously at their pro days, so it’s easy to see what the Saints saw in them.

However, for a non-quarterback, there is no justification to surrendering future draft capital to move up to select a prospect. The variance at the cornerback position is high, and expecting rookie defenders to contribute significantly is often foolish. To sacrifice so much of your future in one prospect would have been a very ill-fated move, so the Saints caught a break here.

Yet, that’s not all! Apparently, there was interest in moving up for Alabama quarterback Mac Jones, with it being cited they had a deal with the Cardinals had he not been selected by the Patriots one spot earlier.

This is a more interesting case, yet with Jones projecting more as a mid-tier quarterback, and the Saints already having a cheap, competent bridge quarterback in Jameis Winston, trading away a future first-round pick for Jones, who needs an excellent supporting cast given some of his limitations, would have been a very tough sell.

Once again, it’s looking like the Saints caught a break by how the draft played out, though moving up for Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields is another matter that would have been much more justifiable.

What I Would Have Done As Saints GM

With the organization needing as much of an injection of young talent as possible, I would have been aggressively been trying to move down in the draft to accumulate more capital, but for the sake of this scenario, the only change I’ll make is keeping the original picks, rather than moving up:

• Round 1, Pick 28: IDL Christian Barmore, Alabama (Actually Selected: 38th- NE)
• Round 2, Pick 60: CB Paulson Adebo, Stanford (Actually Selected: 76th- NO)
• Round 3, Pick 99: LB Jabril Cox, LSU (Actually Selected: 115th- DAL)
• Round 3, Pick 105: WR Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State (Actually Selected: 131st- BAL)
• Round 4, Pick 133: IOL Drew Dalman, Stanford (Actually Selected: 140th- ATL)
• Round 6, Pick 218: CB Thomas Graham Jr., Oregon (Actually Selected: 228th- CHI)
• Round 7, Pick 229: EDGE Patrick Johnson, Tulane (Actually Selected: 234th- PHI)
• Round 7, Pick 255: WR Tammorion Terry, Florida State (Actually Selected: UDFA- SEA)

As I mentioned earlier, picking Barmore and Turner still adds a nice presence to the team’s pass rush, but does so on the interior, where there is a better path to playing time, but most importantly, would have given the team a superior prospect by all accounts, and a far less risky one.

Meanwhile, had they selected Adebo with their second-round pick, they wouldn’t have been obliged to move up for him in the third round, and this patience would have rewarded them with an absolute steal with Jabril Cox, someone Saints fans surely wanted them to draft out of LSU. Capping off the day with an analytical darling in Tylan Wallace, who has big-play ability, multiple elite seasons at Oklahoma State, and a profile as an outside receiver would be quite the haul.

Then, rather than a backup quarterback, fringe offensive linemen, and small-school receiver, the Saints could have come away with a versatile interior offensive lineman as potential insurance for Andrus Peat or Cesar Ruiz moving forward, an undervalued cornerback in Thomas Graham Jr., in addition to receiver Tammorion Terry, who is an underclassman that has interesting peripheral numbers but was overlooked due to poor quarterback play at Florida State. As for Patrick Johnson, some had him ranked in the same range as Turner, so the discrepancy between the two doesn’t make much sense.

More valuable positions, no trading up, fewer risks on players without strong production- this is generally what each team’s draft strategy should be, especially one who was under great pressure to hit on their picks. Perhaps these prospects don’t pan out, but based on the overall process, this would have appeared to be a more optimal allocation of resources.

Overview

The Saints came into the draft needing to hit on as many picks as possible to combat the fact that their roster is aging, has less depth, and they don’t have any financial flexibility.

Rather than recognize this, the front office continued to take risks on athletic developmental projects, and that’s quite concerning. Sure, enough of these prospects can hit the right side of variance, but if they don’t, they could be in a lot of trouble.

Even then, is a rotational edge rusher, starting mike linebacker, No. 2 cornerback, and backup quarterback changing the direction of a franchise? Outside of Adebo, each of their selections doesn’t have sufficient payoff to offset the risk in selecting them, and all appear to be pretty notable reaches. Hopefully, I am proven wrong, yet I am skeptical of the front office’s thought process.

Consider this the icing of the cake on a strange offseason. We have been accustomed to a lot of recent success with this franchise, but, unfortunately, with the way things are shaping up, fans may need to embrace a tougher transition period in the post-Drew Brees era than they were hoping for.