After another productive game by Michael Thomas, it is time for us to realize how much he means to the New Orleans Saints.
Throughout his tenure as the head coach of the Saints, Sean Payton has produced elite offenses, and he has done so by virtue of having elite playmakers. Between Marques Colston, Brandin Cooks, Jimmy Graham, Reggie Bush and now Michael Thomas, the team has always been equipped with a lot of offensive firepower.
Yet, none of those players compare to Michael Thomas. The 27-year-old has been the glue of the offense ever since he was drafted by the team in 2016, and at this point, there is no reason to believe that he isn’t New Orleans’ most irreplaceable player.
Yes, New Orleans has other talented players, such as Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara. However, based on Thomas’ production, and the effect of the offense when he isn’t present, he is the perfect building block for a franchise.
To further illustrate this, let us delve into Thomas’ value further. We’ll start by analyzing him as a player, before shifting to a greater “big picture” view on what he means to the Saints this year, as well as in the future.
Thomas’ Production This Season
If you drafted Michael Thomas for your fantasy team, you are likely disappointed.
An ankle injury suffered late in Week 1 caused him to miss the next three games of the season, but it didn’t stop there. Thomas was suspended for the team’s Week 5 game by the team before a hamstring injury forced him to miss the next two games.
Even if you extrapolate Thomas’ per game statistics for the season, they are underwhelming. He would be on pace for 944 receiving yards, and he has yet to catch a touchdown this year.
However, those numbers don’t do Thomas justice. For starters, Week 12’s win against the Broncos featured little passing due to unique circumstances, and he still managed to have 50 receiving yards.
Meanwhile, he dominated the Falcons in Week 11 and 13, respectively — he had 18 catches and 207 receiving yards in those two games.
Additionally, Thomas has been able to continue to be a sure-handed target for the Saints. According to Player Profiler, he is third in the NFL with a 95.8 percent true catch rate, while his 70% contested catch rate ranks 7th.
Considering four of the six games he has participated this season have involved a quarterback not named Drew Brees, his production remains very impressive.
Thomas’ Previous Production
There is a reason Thomas was going in the top five in most fantasy drafts; his previous production is off the charts. Despite being a second-round pick, the Ohio State product wasted no time making a noticeable impact.
Despite missing a game and not being a huge part of the offense early, he still finished with 1137 receiving yards and 9.4 yards/target. It is easy to forget, but he is a major reason why Brandin Cooks eventually was traded by the Saints; the speedy receiver was frustrated by his lack of targets, which stemmed from Thomas supplanting him as Brees’ preferred target.
From there, Thomas continued to blossom.
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He totaled 1245 receiving yards in 2017 and then developed into a superstar. In both 2018 and 2019, he was named to the All-Pro team and led the league in receptions, and a case can be made for his 2019 stat line as being one of the best for a wide receiver ever.
Not only did he break the single-season receptions record, but he also averaged 107.8 yards per game, posted an elite 80.5% catch rate, and was a consistent chain mover with 91 first downs. Remember, Brees missed five games that season.
Ironically, Thomas never played a major role at Ohio State; he never had more than 800 yards in a season there. However, he certainly isn’t the only receiver from Ohio State to not be properly utilized — Terry McLaurin has been a star for the Washington Football Team but didn’t make much of an impact in college.
This further demonstrates that surface-level college production can not be trusted when projecting a player to the pros, and also shows a way to find undervalued players. Due to his lack of production in college and his limited route tree, many didn’t believe Thomas had “upside”.
However, he had a much higher range of outcomes given the “unknown” with him, and he was able to maximize on his abilities in an organization that has done a tremendous job developing wide receivers.
Is Thomas The Best Receiver In The NFL?
Even after his dominant 2019 season, Thomas was not seen by many as the best receiver in the NFL.
Some of this is due to poorly-drawn stereotypes against Thomas’ style of play; he is seen as someone who is only useful in the short passing game, primarily on slants. However, this is incorrect.
According to Josh Hermsmeyer of Five Thirty Eight, Thomas has generated more expected points added (EPA) per play than Falcons’ Julio Jones, considered by many to be the best receiver in the NFL.
Thomas may get a lot of targets, but a lot of that has to due with the separation. The same cannot be said for D’Andre Hopkins, who ranked last on Hermsmeyer’s list on separation over expectation in the intermediate passing game.
Thus, if Thomas is seen as a limited player, shouldn’t Hopkins be held in the same regard?
Tyreek Hill is not only an incredible deep threat, but an overall dynamic receiver. At the same time, he also has yet to have over 87 receptions in a season, meaning his style of play is more volatile; he and Thomas are different, so it comes down to preference.
Additionally, Davante Adams has been exceptional for the Packers this season, but he has just one other season with 1000+ receiving yards in his six-game career, and that’s while playing in a pass-heavy attack in Green Bay with a star quarterback in Aaron Rodgers.
So, who is the best receiver in the NFL? Ultimately, there isn’t necessarily a right answer. Jones has the most impressive track record, but he also is 31-years-old and has dealt with multiple injuries in recent seasons.
Hopkins, meanwhile, is ultra-productive, but is the worst separator of the “elite five”. Separation may not be an issue for Adams, yet his track record is more limited, while Hill’s consistency is his largest question mark.
As much as I love big-play threats, Thomas’ consistency still puts him a notch over the other elite receivers, in my opinion. As we’ll get into, said consistency is something the Saints cannot survive without.
Saints Offense Without Thomas
The Saints have two losses this season. Should it be considered a coincidence that both came in the first two games they played without Thomas? Probably not.
Sure, New Orleans still performed well in terms of points scored without Thomas, but a lot of that has to do with the defenses they were playing against.
The Raiders, Packers, Chargers, and Panthers have all had their issues with preventing points from being scored. When they faced the Bears, an actually strong defense, Brees averaged just 6.83 yards/pass attempt, while the Saints as a whole went 2-13 on third downs.
Thanks to the work done by several analytically-minded writers, mainly those at Pro Football Focus, we have been made aware that the most valuable position, outside of the quarterback, is the wide receiver position.
What Thomas does for the Saints offense cannot be replaced by anyone else.
You can scheme up yards-after-catch production or a few deep receptions, but when you have a stable, consistent chain mover who can constantly get open on his own, it makes life so much easier for an offense.
Saints Offense Without Drew Brees
When Thomas it out, the Saints still have talented playmakers, so the drop-off shouldn’t be as severe as it is. However, with Drew Brees out, they’re turning to a 30-year-old undrafted free agent in Taysom Hill.
Yet, even in the past three games, New Orleans has averaged 25.3 points/game, and still rate as above-average in yards/play; that’s despite a conservative offensive approach against the Broncos in Week 12 that skews their overall offensive numbers.
That says a lot about head coach Sean Payton. In terms of Wins Above Replacement, Brees may be the most valuable player on the Saints team.
Yet, he also comes with his limitations. His average depth of target is the lowest in the NFL, meaning that the offense is rather one-dimensional with him and relies exclusively on efficiency. With Taysom Hill, that efficiency may not be there, but they’ve been much more successful when it comes to producing big plays.
Payton has done a great job limiting the gap between Brees to Hill; Hill is nowhere near the quarterback Brees is, yet the offense is much more versatile, and thus still very difficult to defend.
When Brees missed five games last season, New Orleans essentially tried to replicate his production with Teddy Bridgewater in the exact same style of offense.
The transition was rough, but Bridgewater ultimately went 5-0 as a starter and posted a career-high 7.5 adjusted net yards/attempt, which he was able to parlay into a $63 million contract from the division-rival Panthers.
In other words, Payton is an absolute genius, and few offensive minds can match his ability to get the maximum production from whatever quarterback is under center, even if said quarterback doesn’t play particularly well.
The amount of early-down play-action passes he has utilized with Hill and Bridgewater speaks to that, and is really is a testament to him building a foundation that should give Saints fans a lot of hope in a post-Brees world.
Saints Offense Without Alvin Kamara
There is really no basis to the idea that a running back could be the most irreplaceable player on a team’s roster, and that remains true with Alvin Kamara.
Right now, the 25-year-old leads the Saints in receiving yards, and his abilities as a dual threat make him the most valuable running back in the NFL, in my opinion. Brees’ low average depth of target has a lot to do for his trust in Kamara in the passing game; Brees targeted him nine times per game.
Nevertheless, the offense has not been tied to his production. With Brees, he was a non-factor in the passing game against the Lions and Bucs, yet the team scored 35+ points in each of these games.
Meanwhile, his most productive games, against the Bears, Packers, and 49ers, were among the offense’s least-efficient outings.
Over the past three games, Kamara has a grand total of three receptions for seven reaching yards.
Thomas, on the other hand, has been the player to step up in Brees’ absence, and unless Kamara makes more of an impact as a receiver, his value goes down significantly; rushing production is far less valuable, and he has consistently been used in a running back-by-committee approach.
It is also worth noting that in the two games that Kamara missed last season, New Orleans averaged 467 yards/game.
Meanwhile, Kamara was limited due to a knee injury all year, yet the Saints still finished with the fourth-best offense in terms of point/play, and that was without Brees for five games. Kamara is fantastic, but he is a running back, after all.
Team-Building Analysis/The Issues of Kamara’s Extension
Kamara is a running back, but that didn’t stop the Saints from investing in him as a key part of their future. Before the start of the season, they signed him to a five year/$75 million contract, which says a lot about their faith in him after he was limited with a knee injury.
Based on his production, you would believe the contract was worth it. He is on pace for 1771 yards from scrimmage, and is averaging a touchdown per game. In his first two seasons, he totaled 1500+ yards from scrimmage, and has averaged 4.9 yards/rush attempt for his career; his efficiency, in addition to his receiving ability, is something is difficult for other running backs to match.
Yet, he also plays the most replaceable position in the NFL. We’ve already gone over how the offense hasn’t been tied to his success and was perfectly fine when he didn’t play, but other running backs for New Orleans have also had success.
Mark Ingram averaged 5.1, 4.9, and 4.7 yards/attempt in 2016, 2017, and 2018, respectively, and since then, Latavius Murray has stepped in and also produced.
The 30-year-old is averaging 4.5 yards/rush attempt this season and has nearly as many yards as Kamara; with an innovative play-caller and a strong offensive line, rushing production has never been a problem for the Saints.
What sets Kamara apart from the typical running back is his receiving ability, but as mentioned he only has three receptions over the past three games.
If Taysom Hill is actually going to be the team’s starting quarterback next season, then this may be a trend that continues, and the same is likely to be true for any other quarterback- they are going to be more aggressive than the ultra-conservative Brees, after all.
As we’ve seen, that’s not a bad approach, as establishing a passing game through a talented group of receivers is the way to go. However, if Kamara isn’t used as a receiver, he also doesn’t hold much value.
This is a problem New Orleans simply could have avoided had they not paid him, and when you’re projected to be over $75 million over the cap next season, a quality running back is a luxury you cannot afford.
Thomas’ Future With Saints
Speaking of contact extensions, Thomas is currently making $20 million per season on a contract that has four more seasons remaining.
However, that didn’t stop the star receiver from being subject to trade rumors this season. This all stems from Thomas’ suspension, but I think there might be more to it than that. New Orleans is going to have to make a lot of cuts to clear salary, which will open roster holes.
To fill those holes, they’ll need draft picks, which they would get from a Thomas trade.
Honestly, this isn’t a bad process. New Orleans desperately needs cost-controlled contributors, and to do so, they need to have as much draft ammunition as possible. If a team offered two first-round picks for Thomas, it would be awfully difficult to decline.
In the end, it all comes down to the Saints’ direction moving forward. If they don’t expect to compete and are anticipating a teardown of the roster, then there is absolutely no reason keeping Thomas on the roster during his peak seasons.
Nevertheless, as we’ve gone over, he isn’t a player that can be replaced, so if they have any hopes of competing, then Thomas is the one player they cannot part ways with.
Overview
Drew Brees plays the game’s most valuable player and Alvin Kamara is the team’s best option in fantasy football leagues, but Michael Thomas is the most irreplaceable player on the Saints.
Whereas New Orleans has been able to score points without Brees and Kamara, Thomas’ lost presence was clearly missed. Head coach Sean Payton can scheme an effective running game or a more versatile offense, but he cannot do the same for Thomas’ consistent chain-moving ability.
It’s very tight, but I think that Thomas’ production warrants him being considered the best receiver in the NFL, so it’s safe to say players like him don’t come around very often. Wide receiver is the second-most valuable position in the NFL, so it is certainly fair to say that he moves the needle.
If the Saints opt for a complete rebuild, trading Thomas for draft compensation is a very reasonable move. However, if they are hoping for more of a “retool” that keeps them competitive, then they must do whatever it takes to clear cap space without trading Thomas.
His Twitter handle says that you “Cantguardmike13”, and that certainly is true. Michael Thomas is heating up at the perfect time for the Saints, and it’s time for him to earn the recognition he clearly deserves.