AccuScore is a highly trusted system used to project the outcome of NFL games, and even entire seasons, with surprising accuracy. They are recognized as the leader in sport forecasting, and even highly respected Las Vegas handicappers didn’t predict the NFL’s winners in 2010 better than the AccuScore system.
AccuScore is forecasting a close game with the New Orleans Saints winning 58% of simulations, and the Atlanta Falcons 42% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The New Orleans Saints commit fewer turnovers in 34% of simulations and they go on to win 85% when they take care of the ball. The Atlanta Falcons wins 56% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Drew Brees is averaging 315 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (32% chance) then he helps his team win 73%. Michael Turner is averaging 81 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (36% chance) then he helps his team win 66%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is ATL -1 — Over/Under line is 49.5